Ecology modelling

Duration:

16.03.2019-31.12.2021

Problem statement

Contemporary spatial patterns of biodiversity are often used in ecology to predict future temporal changes in diversity. This method assumes that the drivers of community turnover in space are the same as those that drive turnover through time. Palaeontological data has been used to test this assumption, but at a single temporal scale (Blois et al. 2013). Here we use time series of planktonic foraminifera assemblages ranging from decades to multi-millennia to test empirically at which temporal scales space can substitute time. We fitted generalised dissimilarity models to contemporary coretop data (see Results section below), and will use these models to predict community turnover through time based on local temperature time-series (alkenone data).

Hypothesis

We expect that longer time scales (deglaciation, ice-ages) are more predictable by contemporary spatial variation than shorter time scales (years to decades). At shorter time scales, stochastic processes and dispersal limitation decouple the relationship between planktonic foraminifera assemblage composition and temperature, but time-averaging reduces these effects at longer time scales.

Working Area

Our results will show whether the space-for-time substitution is valid at temporal scales commonly used in ecological and conservation research.