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- INTERCOAST
- Projects (2012-2015)
- IC6_II
IC6_II
Modelling the distribution of macrofauna species in the Jade Bay in response to environmental change
Project background
In this project, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are applied to predict the spatial and temporal changes in the distribution patterns of macrofauna species (>0.5 mm) in the Jade Bay (southern North Sea) in response to the expected environmental change due to climate change and harbor effects (Jade-Weser Port).
SDMs are numerical tools that combine observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental estimates (Elith and Leathwick 2009). They commonly utilize these associations to identify which environmental conditions within specific populations can be maintained, and to then identify where suitable environments are distributed in space and time (Pearson 2007). SDMs are useful tools to address various issues in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology and climate change research (Guisan and Wilfried 2005). To date, SDMs have been under-utilized in the marine ecosystem relative to terrestrial applications (Robinson et al. 2011). This study provides a contribution for a better understanding of the marine ecosystem that is generally difficult to access and monitor.
The North Sea is one of the most intensively exploited marine ecosystems (commercial fisheries, aquaculture, wind farms and transport routes) and one of the best studied areas in the world (Reiss et al. 2011). Because of their sessile and sedentary habits, benthic species are important indicators for anthropogenic and environmental impacts. The knowledge of their spatial distribution is an essential requirement to get insight into ecological processes and to develop ecosystem management strategies (Reiss et al. 2011). The tidal flat Jade Bay is a highly dynamic and disturbance-rich habitat for the marine benthos (tidal range: 3.8 m, changing water currents, high wave action, altering periods of submersion). Since 2008, it is greatly influenced by the construction of the Jade-Weser Port (completion in September 2012). Due to the construction of a new navigation channel (with draught up to 16.5 m tide independently) changes in the sediment composition, bed forms and thus hydrodynamic conditions are clearly to be expected. Climatic changes could be monitored as well, e.g., the rise of the winter water temperature of 1.5°C in the last two decades in the Wadden Sea (Van Aken 2008), with the consequence of moderate winters since 1997.
Aim of the PhD
The following objectives will be the main focus of this thesis:
In this project, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are applied to predict the spatial and temporal changes in the distribution patterns of macrofauna species (>0.5 mm) in the Jade Bay (southern North Sea) in response to the expected environmental change due to climate change and harbor effects (Jade-Weser Port).
SDMs are numerical tools that combine observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental estimates (Elith and Leathwick 2009). They commonly utilize these associations to identify which environmental conditions within specific populations can be maintained, and to then identify where suitable environments are distributed in space and time (Pearson 2007). SDMs are useful tools to address various issues in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology and climate change research (Guisan and Wilfried 2005). To date, SDMs have been under-utilized in the marine ecosystem relative to terrestrial applications (Robinson et al. 2011). This study provides a contribution for a better understanding of the marine ecosystem that is generally difficult to access and monitor.
The North Sea is one of the most intensively exploited marine ecosystems (commercial fisheries, aquaculture, wind farms and transport routes) and one of the best studied areas in the world (Reiss et al. 2011). Because of their sessile and sedentary habits, benthic species are important indicators for anthropogenic and environmental impacts. The knowledge of their spatial distribution is an essential requirement to get insight into ecological processes and to develop ecosystem management strategies (Reiss et al. 2011). The tidal flat Jade Bay is a highly dynamic and disturbance-rich habitat for the marine benthos (tidal range: 3.8 m, changing water currents, high wave action, altering periods of submersion). Since 2008, it is greatly influenced by the construction of the Jade-Weser Port (completion in September 2012). Due to the construction of a new navigation channel (with draught up to 16.5 m tide independently) changes in the sediment composition, bed forms and thus hydrodynamic conditions are clearly to be expected. Climatic changes could be monitored as well, e.g., the rise of the winter water temperature of 1.5°C in the last two decades in the Wadden Sea (Van Aken 2008), with the consequence of moderate winters since 1997.
Aim of the PhD
The following objectives will be the main focus of this thesis:
- Modelling the present-day distribution of characteristic macrofauna species for the Jade Bay.
- Modelling past and future distribution scenarios of characteristic macrofauna species for the Jade Bay.
- Comparison of the results of the past distribution scenarios with previous survey data (1930s and 1970s).
- Regional climate scenarios are used for future predictions of macrofauna distribution.
- Invasive species (e.g., Crassostrea gigas) are integrated in the future scenario approaches.
- Comparison of different modelling approaches (e.g., GLM, MARS, RF or ANN).
- Cooperation with IC5_II “Trends of habitat patchiness in acoustic seafloor classification data” by integrating hydroacoustic data.
- Application of the model on similar data for the Bay of Plenty (Tauranga, New Zealand).
Members
| Proponents | : | PD Dr. Ingrid Kröncke | University of Bremen |
| Prof. Dr. Kai Bischof | |||
| Dr. Alexander Bartholomä | |||
| : | Prof. Dr. Conrad Pilditch | University of Waikato | |
| Prof. Dr. Chris Battershill | |||
| PhD Candidate | : | Anja Singer | University of Bremen |
Publications
N / A
Miscellaneous
N / A