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IC34

Uncertainties of regional ocean circulation projections

Coastal and marine administration and litigation requires information on socio-economic as well as ecosystems. Increasingly, expert opinions and decision support rely on mathematical models of varying complexity. This project seeks to contribute to an interdisciplinary analysis of the formulation and understanding of causal connections in science and in law by evaluating the uncertainties of regional ocean circulation projections.

The objectives of the project are to

(1) estimate the uncertainties in the projected changes of the ocean circulation in the North Sea and New Zealand coastal regions;

(2) assess the implications for the management of future environmental risks;

(3) communicate implications and possible adaptations.

A regional model is going to be used with initial and boundary conditions for the North Sea and New Zealand regions from different CMIP5 global climate models. The results will be analysed in terms of the range of changes in storm frequency and intensity and their implications for the transport and redistribution of sediments (North Sea region) and spreading of oil plumes (New Zealand region).
Proponents:Prof. Dr. Michael SchulzUniversity of Bremen
Dr André PaulUniversity of Waikato
Dr. Mark HadfieldNIWA
PhD Candidate:Diana Azevedo MartinsUniversity of Bremen

Publications

N / A

Miscellaneous

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