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IC2_II

Assessing environmental changes and risks using a regional coupled ocean-athmosphere-sediment model

The aim of this study is the assessment of coastal changes and impacts due to future climate changes. For regional planning and appropriate adaptation strategies, information on the range of anticipated climate variations and resulting impacts on a comparable spatial scale is required. A deeper understanding of the processes that govern the interaction of shelf seas, atmospheric circulation and sediment transport is perceived as very useful for managing coastal resources.

In this context two key regions, the North Sea and the New Zealand region, are investigated. In the North Sea the focus is on the sediment transport and distribution and their variations as an effect of climate changes, in particular storm events. The main research questions for the North Sea region are:
  1. What are potential future climate changes in the southern North Sea region, in particular with respect to the mean and variability of the sea-surface wind stress?
  2. What are the likely effects of these changes on the sediment transport and distribution in the southern North Sea region?
In the New Zealand region the focus is on modeling oil spills especially from planned offshore wells in two designated regions off the coast. The aim is an estimation of oil distribution as risk assessment of pollution in the marine environment. The main research questions for the New Zealand region are:
  1. What would be the transport pathways by which oil spilled from offshore wells could reach the coast?
  2. Regarding the distribution of potential oil spills, where would the oil spread - which part of the coast would be affected, to what extend and over which length?
To answer these questions, the Coupled Ocean – Atmosphere – Wave - Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system (http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/operations/modeling/COAWST/) is applied, which allows to assess the role of interactions of the different system components. In the North Sea region, the regional model will be forced by three-hourly output from a 'historical' simulation for the 20th century and a projection (RCP8.5) for the end of the 21st century by a global climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR). In the New Zealand region, current observations will be used as boundary conditions for the ocean component of the COAWST modeling system, the Rena oil spill will serve as an initial test case and the results compared to an ongoing project at the University of Waikato, varying the source location, depth and strength.

During the stay in New Zealand, a close interaction with the complementary ongoing PhD project NZIC1 in environmental law is planned to jointly study the use of modeling and other scientific techniques for managing the risk of oil pollution in New Zealand waters.
Proponents:Prof. Dr. Michael SchulzUniversity of Bremen
Dr. Andre Paul
:Dr. Mark HadfieldUniversity of Waikato
PhD Candidate:Alexandra GronholzUniversity of Bremen

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Miscellaneous

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