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- WP 2.3: Variability of the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic and European summer temperatures
WP 2.3: Variability of the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic and European summer temperatures
PI:
Johanna Baehr, IfM, CEN, Universität Hamburg, johanna.baehr(at)uni-hamburg.de
Team:
Wolfgang Müller, MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg
Nele Neddermann, CEN, Universität Hamburg
Johanna Baehr, IfM, CEN, Universität Hamburg, johanna.baehr(at)uni-hamburg.de
Team:
Wolfgang Müller, MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg
Nele Neddermann, CEN, Universität Hamburg
Predictive skill (anomalie Correlation Coefficient against ERAinterim analysis) forsurface air temperature in a hindcast ensemble from 1982-2010, started every May and averaged over June-July-August (left), and started every November and averaged over December-January-February (right); from Baehr et al., 2015.
The analysis of seasonal predictability usually focuses on analysing hindcast skill over the past 30 years or so. In the present sub-project, we will analyse hindcast simulation fro the last 100 years to investigate the seasonal predictability in relation to the multidecadal climate variability. In the first phase of the project, we found that the potential predictability of the oceanic heat transport in the North Atlantic varies over different periods.In the present sub-project we will particularly investigate the relation of the state of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the European Summer Temperatures for their potential of increased predictive skill. Our main research question is therefore, whether the predicative skill for European Summer Temperatures can be increased by taking into account the phase of the AMO.